Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 North Carolina 100.0%   1   29 - 5 14 - 2 29 - 5 14 - 2 +18.6      +9.8 10 +8.8 8 83.4 5 +18.3 6 +19.6 1
15 Duke 100.0%   2   27 - 6 13 - 3 27 - 6 13 - 3 +13.9      +10.1 7 +3.8 70 70.9 91 +17.6 8 +16.5 2
22 Florida St. 100.0%   4   24 - 9 12 - 4 24 - 9 12 - 4 +12.7      +3.8 75 +8.9 7 71.2 86 +13.3 19 +14.6 3
31 Virginia 96.1%   10   22 - 9 9 - 7 22 - 9 9 - 7 +10.9      +2.0 120 +8.9 6 56.7 335 +10.7 36 +9.3 4
41 Miami (FL) 25.6%   19 - 12 9 - 7 19 - 12 9 - 7 +9.4      +6.1 35 +3.3 79 63.9 260 +8.4 58 +8.9 5
43 North Carolina St. 69.7%   11   22 - 12 9 - 7 22 - 12 9 - 7 +9.0      +6.2 34 +2.8 89 71.1 88 +9.4 46 +7.8 6
80 Virginia Tech 0.0%   16 - 17 4 - 12 16 - 17 4 - 12 +6.1      +2.7 103 +3.5 74 61.6 298 +4.5 104 -0.5 10
82 Clemson 0.0%   16 - 15 8 - 8 16 - 15 8 - 8 +6.0      +2.3 107 +3.6 71 62.6 278 +2.4 139 +6.4 7
125 Maryland 0.0%   17 - 15 6 - 10 17 - 15 6 - 10 +2.9      +2.8 100 +0.1 170 69.0 129 +5.7 91 +4.8 8
170 Georgia Tech 0.0%   11 - 20 4 - 12 11 - 20 4 - 12 -0.2      -3.0 252 +2.8 95 63.1 273 -0.8 180 -2.0 12
195 Wake Forest 0.0%   13 - 18 4 - 12 13 - 18 4 - 12 -1.8      -0.3 175 -1.5 219 69.7 117 +0.3 166 -0.8 11
252 Boston College 0.0%   9 - 22 4 - 12 9 - 22 4 - 12 -5.4      -4.7 288 -0.7 190 64.9 238 -3.3 221 -0.5 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
North Carolina 1.0 100.0
Duke 2.0 100.0
Florida St. 3.0 100.0
Virginia 4.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 4.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 4.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 9.0 100.0
Clemson 7.0 100.0
Maryland 8.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 9.0 100.0
Wake Forest 9.0 100.0
Boston College 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
North Carolina 14 - 2 100.0
Duke 13 - 3 100.0
Florida St. 12 - 4 100.0
Virginia 9 - 7 100.0
Miami (FL) 9 - 7 100.0
North Carolina St. 9 - 7 100.0
Virginia Tech 4 - 12 100.0
Clemson 8 - 8 100.0
Maryland 6 - 10 100.0
Georgia Tech 4 - 12 100.0
Wake Forest 4 - 12 100.0
Boston College 4 - 12 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
North Carolina 100.0% 100.0
Duke
Florida St.
Virginia
Miami (FL)
North Carolina St.
Virginia Tech
Clemson
Maryland
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1   59.2 38.8 2.0 0.0 100.0%
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   14.8 59.1 25.4 0.8 0.0 100.0%
Florida St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 4   0.0 1.3 32.1 48.5 17.3 0.8
Virginia 96.1% 0.0% 96.1% 10   0.1 0.9 8.8 29.3 40.6 15.5 0.9 0.0 3.9 96.1%
Miami (FL) 25.6% 0.0% 25.6% 0.0 0.1 2.1 11.5 10.7 1.2 74.4 25.6%
North Carolina St. 69.7% 0.0% 69.7% 11   0.1 0.7 6.7 26.7 31.3 4.2 0.0 30.3 69.7%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Clemson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.5% 73.0% 53.3% 32.2% 17.9% 9.5%
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 83.0% 51.6% 27.1% 11.3% 4.6% 1.6%
Florida St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 67.9% 36.4% 12.3% 4.8% 1.6% 0.5%
Virginia 96.1% 0.9% 95.7% 47.1% 13.9% 5.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
Miami (FL) 25.6% 23.9% 15.0% 5.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 69.7% 37.0% 52.4% 19.5% 6.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Clemson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.9 0.7 23.0 60.4 15.9
1st Round 100.0% 4.6 1.4 40.9 51.0 6.7
2nd Round 99.9% 3.2 0.1 3.1 19.0 41.5 30.0 6.1 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 94.0% 1.8 6.0 29.5 42.1 20.0 2.4 0.1
Elite Eight 74.3% 1.0 25.7 50.3 21.9 2.1 0.1
Final Four 45.4% 0.5 54.6 40.4 4.9 0.1
Final Game 23.8% 0.2 76.2 23.1 0.8
Champion 11.7% 0.1 88.3 11.7